Election of 1940

Incumbent president Franklin Roosevelt decides not to run for an unprecedented third term. James Farley is a very savvy politician and is responsible for the organization of the powerful New Deal coalition. Opposing him is Robert A. Taft, a conservative, isolationist Republican and organizer of the equally powerful Conservative Coalition. In a down to the wire election, Taft comes out on top but loses the popular vote to Farley. Additionally, Republicans and Conservative Dems keep their majority in both houses of Congress, allowing Taft to push through his conservative and isolationist agenda. Farley is commonly referred to as a political kingmaker, and he is responsible for Roosevelt's rise to the presidency. He was the campaign manager for New York State politician Alfred E. Smith's 1922 gubernatorial campaign and Roosevelt's 1928 and 1930 gubernatorial campaigns as well as Roosevelt's presidential campaigns of 1932 and 1936. Farley predicted large landslides in both, and revolutionized the use of polling data. He is also a business executive and dignitary.

As architect of the New Deal, Farley was responsible for pulling together the New Deal Coalition of Catholics, labor unions, African Americans, and farmers. Farley and the administration's patronage machine over which he presided helped to fuel the social and infrastructure programs of the New Deal. He handled most mid-level and lower-level appointments, in consultation with state and local Democratic organizations. However, Farley was unable to mobilize the powerful coalition for his own ill-fated 1940 campaign.

Taft, by contrast, the elder son of William Howard Taft, the 27th President of the United States and tenth Chief Justice of the United States, was born in Cincinnati, Ohio. He pursued a legal career in Cincinnati after graduating from Harvard Law School in 1913. Along with his brother Charles Phelps Taft II, he co-founded the law partnership of Taft Stettinius & Hollister. Taft served in the Ohio House of Representatives from 1921 to 1931 and in the Ohio Senate from 1931 to 1933. Though he lost re-election in 1932, he remained a powerful force in state and local politics.

After winning election to the Senate in 1938 over incumbent Democrat Robert J. Bulkley, Taft successfully sought the Republican presidential nomination, often battling for control of the party with the moderate faction of Republicans led by Thomas E. Dewey. In 1940, Taft brings together a formidable coalition of Southern conservatives, Northeastern business interests, and conservative Midwestern Protestants. In November, it is these groups that turn out to the polls in far greater numbers than Farley's coalition.